-THE GOOD NEWS

The figures are in for 2009 and the volume of real estate sales in Summit County was down to 45% of its peak in 2007. We were below levels of the last downturn in 2001, approaching levels equal to that of 1997. The amazing thing is that the average sales price continues to climb. The more affluent second homeowner is driving our market more than ever. The average sales price is nearly double that of 2003. I guess the millionaires who were priced out of Aspen are now priced out of Vail and finding Summit County a real bargain.

~ CEOs of American companies were surveyed and the results published in Business Roundtable’s Fourth Quarter 2009 CEO Economic Outlook Survey indicate that 68 percent predict that company sales will increase in the next six months, up sharply from the 51 percent who predicted sales growth just three months ago.

~A survey produced by National Real Estate Investor and Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services shows that buyers are looking to re-enter the market. The survey reported that 65 percent of survey respondents plan to increase their investment in commercial real estate in 2010, which is higher than the 56 percent in the third quarter and 51 percent tallied 12 months earlier. According to the 6th Annual Investment Survey, 72 percent of the survey respondents reported that they are setting aside capital for investment purposes. A total of 28 percent indicated they are already starting to make purchases while an additional 41 percent believe they will be adding to their portfolios in the next six months.

~Barclays Wealth released the results of a global survey which revealed renewed confidence in commercial and residential real estate. Twice as many high net worth investors said they plan to increase their real estate portfolios over the next two years as compared to 17 percent that indicated they would decrease their real estate holdings. The global survey also indicated “the U.S.where subprime mortgages were a key catalyst in sparking the wider recession is deemed significantly more attractive than all other markets, with 16 percent of respondents saying they anticipated the best returns there."

~National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun reported recently he expects home sales to rise in 2010 and even home prices to increase in some areas of the country. Activity in the residential real estate market has been bolstered this year by attractive pricing and low mortgage interest rates, but also by an $8,000 federal income tax credit. Recently, President Obama signed legislation that extends the $8,000 tax credit, which also included a new $6,500 federal tax credit for some existing homeowners, through April 30, 2010. In fact, the credit is working better than first projected-it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 million to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.” Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a
gain of 2.0 percent over 2008, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. New home sales are projected at 397,000 in 2009, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010, NAR officials said.

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